It’s almost Christmas and box office is still down from last year’s already disappointing December. We’d have to go all the way to 2008 to find a worse weekend just before Christmas. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opened to around 2/3 of the original while Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked was less than half of The Squeakquel. The only good news comes from Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol‘s record breaking limited release.
Sequels have been hit or miss this year and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is no different. After opening with an underwhelming $39.6 million (original opened with $62.3 million a week after Avatar), Sherlock will need very strong box office legs to match the $209 million grossed by the first one in North America. Right now $180 million seems to be the ceiling but that could change next weekend depending on how well this Robert Downey Jr. film can hold its own against the upcoming flood of new releases. The original Sherlock Holmes survived Avatar so A Game of Shadows has a certain reputation to live up to.
In 2nd place Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked scored $23.2 million, a new series low after Alvin and the Chipmunks opened with $44.3 million while the second one grabbed $48.8 million. Among TV cartoons brought to the big screen, Chipwrecked‘s opening compares to Garfield: The Movie ($21.7 million) and is a lot lower than this year’s The Smurfs. Speaking of those blue devils, a few months ago I mentioned they threw the glove at Alvin and his gang and as far as I can tell after just one weekend, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked will definitely lose to The Smurfs.
Now here’s a movie that didn’t disappoint, on the contrary, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol grossed $12.7 million over the weekend in just 425 theaters, setting a new limited release (under 600 theaters) opening record, previously held by Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason with $8.6 million in 530 theater. Truth be told, most of those were IMAX theaters with their super inflated ticket prices and around 40 of them showed the 6-minute prologue of The Dark Knight Rises. But besides all of this Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol had another very important aspect going for, it’s a damn great movie and for me personally the best in the series. On Wednesday the film expands to over 3400 theaters so I’m expecting some impressive numbers over the coming days.
Rounding up the top 5 were New Year’s Eve with $7.3 million for $24.7 million in 10 days and The Sitter with 4.6 million and $17.9 million so far.
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It’s no secret that box office has been down lately but things are about to change this weekend with the release of three major sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol in IMAX and select theaters.
Sherlock Holmes faced off against Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel back in 2009 and unfortunately for mankind the Squeakquel won ($219.6 million versus $209 million). Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows has come for payback and should have no problems taking this weekend. Starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law again as Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson, A Game of Shadows aims to match the $62.3 million opening of the original. A year ago I would have predicted at the very least $70 million for this sequel, today, after so many disappointing follow-ups I’m going to downgrade Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows to $65 million.
Next up should be Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, the third entry in the ridiculously popular singing chipmunks series based on the animated characters created for a Christmas song. Previously Alvin and the Chipmunks (2007) opened with $44.3 million and went on to gross $217.3 million. The sequel opened with $48.8 million and finished with $219.6 million. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked should open with $40 million or so and finish a good deal below the previous films. The reason for that is simple, family sequels have been down in 2011 and third entries usually make less money. But I also could be wrong.
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol opens today in 425 theaters, most of which are IMAX. Making his live-action debut with this film is the famous Pixar director Brad Bird. Now this guy made some of my favorite animated movies in the past, namely The Iron Giant, The Incredibles and Ratatouille. So Ghost Protocol being my most anticipated movie in quite some time is no surprise. That being said this is the 4th entry in the Mission: Impossible series and once again stars Tom Cruise as agent Ethan Hunt. Now Mission: Impossible 3, while my favorite of the bunch, was somewhat of a box office disappointment with just $134 million in North America, significantly lower compared to the $180.9 million made by the original in 1998 or the $215.4 million of Mission: Impossible 2. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol might be headed for $40 million next weekend but for now it will have to settle with $10 million or so. On a side note, around 40 of the Ghost Protocol IMAX theaters will be showing a 6 minutes long prologue of The Dark Knight Rises (full list of venues here).
New Year’s Eve will be 4th with $7 million for $24 million after 10 days while The Sitter is going to be 5th with $6 million and $19 million in 10 days.
Next week is going to be insane with 5 new wide releases opening from the 21st up to the 25th. We got Spielberg’s The Adventures of Tintin (already a international hit) and War Horse, David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, We Bought a Zoo and Darkest Hour. Also Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol goes wide thanks to over 3400 theaters.
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